Pantropical distribution of short-rotation woody plantations: spatial probabilities under current and future climate

Abstract Short-rotation woody plantations (SRWPs) play a major role in climate change mitigation and adaptation plans, because of their high yields biomass fast carbon storage. However, benefits, trade-offs growing-success are heavily location-dependent. Therefore, spatial data on the distribution SRWPs indispensable for assessing current distribution, with other uses potential contributions to mitigation. As global datasets lack reliable information full mapping is difficult, we provide consistent systematic approach estimate (sub-)tropical biomes under future climate. We combined three advanced methods (maximum entropy, random forest multinomial regression) evaluate spatially explicit probabilities SRWPs. inputs served large empirical dataset SRWP observations 17 predictor variables, covering biophysical socio-economic conditions. varied strongly between regions, might not be feasible parts biomes, challenging feasibility plans that over-rely tree plantations. Due climatic changes, decreased many areas, particularly pronounced higher emission scenarios. This indicates negative feedback emissions resulting less potential. Less suitable land could also result fewer wood resources from these plantations, enhancing pressure natural forests hampering sustainability initiatives use wood-based alternatives. Our results can help adding more nuanced treatment options management research biodiversity change.